I think if they do an upgrade to the D850 ,they're going to have to do a hell of a lot more than the 750 to 780 approach. And people who would have bought a new D850 and are not interested in Z-series features like improved Live View or video in a DSLR will buy the D850 (assuming the D850 continues in the Nikon catalog for 12-24 months after the introduction of a successor.)īottom line is they may have to release another high end Dxxx DSLR since existing DSLR's and Z-sales may not be enough to keep them afloat. But with a D850 successor in the market you capture both: people who want the new model will buy it. I'm guessing more people will buy a D850 successor over the next couple of years than will buy a D850 if there is no new model. Some people buy new camera models just because they're new. when new options are continually released by your competition. But in a consumer market, you need to keep things fresh, esp. I really don't know the economics of all of it. They may need to do a refresh just to keep things afloat. The D850 sold well and has a higher margin than another other body (other than the D5/D6). I'm not sure Z-series and their current lineup of DSLR's is enough to sustain them. But given what's happening with the company, I'm not sure financially Nikon can afford not to bring out a D850 successor.
The D6 maybe the end of its line, as well, just like the F6. My guess is that economically, a successor to the D850 is unlikely. If I capture video, I would use mirrorless with an EVF to begin with. A couple of year from now, the market for DSLRs will shrink further. Unlike the D750, the D850 can already capture 4K video, and use the entire width of the sensor to do so. It took 5+ years to go from the D750 to D780, and the improvement for still photography is limited. I doubt that Nikon will upgrade the D850 at all. I think what Nikon does in the next 6- 12 months will make or break things for them. if the D880 is priced too high like the D780 is for its market segment.) But I'm not sure how much innovation Nikon can afford right now on the DSLR front, as opposed to more modest product improvements to bring in new sales. I'm not sure that would fly with some of us (I would just keep my D850 and buy a Z7, esp. The path of least resistance might be as you said to in fact pull a D780 and make minimal changes to a D850 replacement other than what they can port over from the Z7. I am now thinking unless they can somehow support themselves on Z-series (including lenses) sales in the near term, then need to have another high end DSLR available soon to stay solvent (I don't think the D6 will generate enough unit sales given it's high retail price.) But that's sacrificing the long term (strength in the mirrorless market) for short term gains (milking DSLR sales). But Nikon doesn't have a lot of wiggle room on this given their current state and the state of the market. I do think the Z-series with the FTZ adapter was a good move, since I personally am convinced it is a mirrorless future. Many people here argue Nikon is not in a position financially to ignore their F-mount user base. And given Nikon's financials, time is not on their side. But I think they need to decide soon either to pull the trigger or the plug on a D850 replacement. And maybe they'll wait a little longer to see how a new DSLR (the D780) sells in a ML "crazed" market (to quote another thread here on DPReview). Maybe Nikon was waiting to see how well received the Z7 was before deciding. Yet the ILC market will be a very different place in two years. why is that relevant? Well Nikon would have to either have already made the decision about the next D850 or is close to it now given normal upgrade cycles. I really have no idea how long it takes to develop a modern DSLR-type camera but would guess at a minimum 6-12 months? And maybe twice that when you consider testing, manufacturing and distribution? But I have to imagine there is some (significant) lead time in bringing new products to market.
This is a good question John! Obviously only Nikon knows for sure.